By
Ahmed Taib ICAO AVSEC PM-EU
3
months after the yet to be solved Sham El Sheikh debacle in Egypt’s Sinai
Peninsula comes the Daallo Airlines, Mogadisco airport fiasco where soon after
take-off a A321 was damaged by an explosion resulting in a large hole in the
fuselage. One passenger was sucked out and killed. Another three were
injured. The Daallo flight 159 to Djibouti is said to have been climbing out of
Mogadishu’s -Adden Adde Airport crossing an altitude around 11000 ft, when a
massive explosion occurred inside the passenger cabin.
A
gaping hole on the right side of the A321 was the result with one
person sitting next to the explosion center being sucked out by the
following decompression with at least three other passengers being
injured. It is only out of sheer luck that the explosion happened whilst the
flight was still at low altitude. If the explosion had happened at a higher
altitude, the hole in the fuselage might have caused more severe structural
damage, rendering the whole plane to possibly even disintegrate after the
explosion.
Knowing
all the Mogadisco airports well from my time, when it was still the wild- wild
East, from the Kilometre 50 one which had an airport fire engine converted into
a Soviet 4500 effective altitude ZPU- 1 AA gun carrier, to the Kilometre 90 one
to, the Adden Adde one in central Mogadishu, I would blame the incident
squarely on the lack of security around the aircraft whilst on ground at
Mogadishu Airport, and simply describe the facility as chaotic with zero
security. For I have witnessed when an aircraft immediately parks, some 20 to
30 people dash to the would be ramp. “None of them with an airport pass of any
sort, let alone reflective jackets, quite an improvement from some 10 years ago
when a khat ferrying caravan or cessna would be surrounded by AK 47 and GPMG’s
welding dishevelled thugs. Today, they wear designer clothes, enter and leave
aircraft at will, and no one knows who is who, which basically means they can
easily put anything inside when passengers leave the aircraft.”
With
the non-ending insurgency from the Al Shabab and their continued deadly forays
in Somalia and neighbouring states and threaten to easily transcend the borders
of the horn of Africa which continue attracting Middle Eastern and Western
interests. Even with Somalia’s semblance of a government committing towards
tightening security at her airport(s) to prevent other threats. Al Shabab’s new
interest in the porous aviation arena highlights additional security concerns
in the Somali capital, including that of aircraft being struck by gunfire on
approach to the city’s airport(s).
Knowing
the Somalis particularly the Majartein, Hawiye and Issak, I grew up around, a
passive look at Al Shabab’s evolution, simply says that a good part of their
uptick is owed to the increased recruitment of youth following the 2007
invasion of Somalia by Ethiopia, a hated enemy. Intense nationalism, clan ties,
and war stories by veterans of Somalia's incessant wars, and its reception of a
boost from radicalized Kenyan youth brainwashed to believe the existence of
deliberate marginalization of Kenyan Muslims, all of beefed up the jihadist
ideology.
The
jihadist recruiting themes in use today emphasize religious duty, the
fictitious defense of Islam against infidel aggression, restoration of honour,
and the promise of paradise. Faith is one of the reasons why young men
radicalize and recruit themselves to terrorism, but it is not always the major
factor particularly in Kenya for that matter. Personal circumstances are more
important. Would-be jihadist warriors are angry, eager for adventure, out to
assuage personal humiliation and demonstrate their manhood. Many are motivated
by personal crises, In Kenya terrorism does not attract the well-adjusted. They
Al Shabab and those they attract are stray dogs, not lone wolves, to whom the
porosities in aviation security in the horn of Africa region gives a readymade
platform for them to gain the international mileage they seek.
Lest
we forget, terrorists do not fall unto earth seasoned and savvy. They all start
out as amateurs and get better with on-the-job experience. The absence of any
continuing clandestine organization in the region does not preclude learning.
Yes, the success of the likes of the Kenyan authorities at the moment has acted
as a deterrent, which is a promising proposition. However, anyone capable of
calculating risk should be wise enough, not to confine Al Shabab’s so called
jihad efforts to braggadocio some of it on the internet, particularly because
they are determined, and have the intent. To them death is a means to an end,
that of getting to heaven and its promised luxuries.
We
must cease drawing comfort from the fact that jihadists seem to us to be a
disheveled lot devoid of any smartness, operational wise. A very short distance
separates the very foolish from the extremely dangerous amongst them. Given
that we have unrealistically come to expect 100 percent security from our
police and militaries, a single well-orchestrated terrorist success in the
aviation industry in the Eastern and the Horn of Africa region can easily
provoke paroxysms of panic and overreaction. Al Shabab’s recent terrorist
attack on Daallo Flight 159 is a stark reminder that the Somalia-based group
poses a threat to all our interests in the region.
There
are several reasons why we in Aviation Security profession in the Eastern and
Horn of Africa region should be very concerned about the new trend Al Shabaab
seems interested in after the Daallo flight 159 possible test run . First, they
possess a competent external operational capability to strike targets outside
of Somalia. A good example being the Garissa University and Westgate Mall attacks
in Kenya, articulately well planned, executed, involved sophisticated
intelligence collection, surveillance and reconnaissance of the targets. These
skills can easily be used for more worrisome attacks, particularly against the
already very porous regional civil aviation industry.
Secondly,
Shabab officials, including the Pumwani-Nairobi born anointed leader of the Al
Shabab Kenyan contingent one Ahmad ‘Amaadi’ Iman, a trained Mechanical Engineer
by trade with a $3million bounty on his head, continues to express an interest
in striking targets in the region, this it needs to be clearly known is not
limited to attacks against malls, supermarkets, embassies or locations
frequented by Westerners, neither does it therefore exempt aviation
infrastructure. After all, Al Shabab subscribes to Al Qaeda's extremist
ideology, which aims at the establishment of an extreme version of Islamic law
in Somalia and views the region, it’s developing new found wealth of oil, as
well as the latest American interests in areas like Djibouti as high value
targets.
Thirdly,
and perhaps most concerning, Al Shabab has successfully recruited dozens of
Western educated proponents to fight in Somalia. Many of them may possess some
disturbing skill sets that need a very a sober understanding of the group. Yes,
Al Shabab has suffered a series of military defeats at the hands of Somali,
Kenyan and other African forces. But as the Daallo Airlines and recent AMISOM
Kenyan Contingent Base in EL Ade, Somalia attacks shows, Al Shabab has the capability
to conduct high-profile attacks in the region, calling for us all to be on a
high alert in Eastern and Horn of Africa region as a whole.
To
make matters worse directly across the Gulf of Aden from Somalia, the remnants
of Yemen smolders under the weight of the Houthi insurgency currently facing
its own routing under the Saudi led Operation. Yemen is or was a critical
regional U.S. ally occupying the strategically important South Western corner
of the Arabian Peninsula. In the midst of all this strife lies tiny Djibouti. A
country many Americans and or Westerners, for that matter may not have heard
of, but has emerged as a critical staging ground for promoting stability in
Eastern and Horn of Africa region, supporting operations throughout the U.S.
Central Command's area of responsibility, which stretches from Egypt into
Central Asia.
With
the US extending its commitment to Djibouti with a 20-year lease last May, for
use of the country's Camp Lemonnier, an expansive base of 4,000 American
service members and civilians focused on counterterrorism operations. With
Djibouti being adjacent to Somalia and just 17 miles across the Gulf of Aden
from Yemen, it is itself an appetizing target that now changes the terrorism
equation in the region. Creating a tremendous demand, for the various types of
capacity building that are necessary for national and regional security, from
aviation security screening, to the detecting and defusing of improvised
explosive devices to monitoring persistent threats and mitigating the
consequences of horrific attacks, such as those that continue to plague Kenya,
and so on.
At
a minimum, the US Camp Lemonnier should serve as the eyes and ears on Somalia
and on militant threats stemming from this region. As well as serve as a combat
hub supporting AMISOM efforts. Apart from becoming a more than the
round-the-clock hours of intelligence surveillance, possibly also deploying
drone strikes to target Al Shabaab to help prevent potential terrorist attacks,
it should also be used by the US Department of Homeland Security’s TSA to
assist the region in improving Aviation Security Management. Lest we forget
since at least 2001, East Africa has been one demonstration of both the
geographic extent to which militant jihadism has spread and the operational
extent to which it has entrenched itself in vulnerable territories. Confronting
this threat compels us East Africans to devise innovative approaches to waging
sustained efforts in some of the remotest corners of the world.
The
collaborative role being played by the US and Djibouti, which should at least
extend to AMISOM, would represent the kind of partnerships that are now
required in the battle against terrorism, because little-known places like
Djibouti are one arena where the battle could be won or lost. In the immediate
future, the U.S. role in the Eastern and Horn of Africa should also represent a
commitment to a part of the world where security problems continue to grow and
where security interests have grown increasingly common among U.S. citizens,
East Africans and the region’s aviation industry.
The
author is a Critical Infrastructure Protection & Transport Security
Management Professional. One of the 1st Eastern & Horn of Africa's ICAO
AVSEC PM's and European Aviation Security Training Institute-EASTI Belgium
Graduate
Alshabaab is a serious threat to aviation industry
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